The Zendikar Rising Championship is drawing near. Sadly, I didn’t manage to qualify and won’t be playing. This allows me to freely speak my mind about what decks I expect and what deck I’d recommend for now. As I’ve played plenty of Standard in the last month and absolutely no Historic, this article will focus entirely on Standard.
State of Standard
In the current day and age Standard is evolving very fast. More games than ever are played on Arena. Relevant tournaments are hosted on an almost daily basis. Metagames get solved faster than ever. The League weekends played by the MPL and Rivals give us lists tuned by the very best players in the world.
Next to that, if a deck or card is overperforming, it is getting banned quickly nowadays. I don’t think 《Omnath, Locus of Creation》 was more powerful than 《Oko, Thief of Crowns》, yet it got banned way faster.
Since Omnath, no additional cards got banned and no deck has been truly dominating. As far as I know, there are no calls for bannings either. For me, this shows we have a healthy metagame. The metagame is still solved, but I think it’s healthy. Evolution of decks and winrates also shows this.
Decks of Standard
Standard currently has three dominating archetypes: Gruul Adventures, Dimir Rogues and Yorion Doom Foretold. Other decks I feel worth mentioning are Monogreen Food, Temur Ramp and Rakdos Escape. Following are versions of these decks I’d recommend.
This deck has more or less reached its final form. There’s some discussion about the exact numbers of each Legendary artifact, but six total seems right to me.
Different variations of this deck exist and the gameplan of each version can be a bit different. I have a slight preference for the Rogues lists with 《Lurrus of the Dream-Den》 as Companion.
The current leading Yorion deck is Esper Doom Foretold as it has a positive matchup versus Gruul Adventures, something other Yorion decks struggle with. Other Yorion decks include Azorius, Selesnya, Mardu and Abzan variations. Each of these aim to control the board and generate card advantage through Yorion and 《Elspeth Conquers Death》.
This deck basically didn’t exist a month ago and is now rising in popularity. Don’t dismiss this as just a monogreen beatdown deck.
Temur Ramp seems to take up a small fraction of the metagame for quite a while now. Having a difficult matchup versus Gruul Adventures hurts this deck. I love the list Shintaro Ishimura brought for the November Zendikar Rising League Weekend, however. There’s a hard focus on a possible turn 5 《Ugin, the Spirit Dragon》 here.
Having loads of Escape cards make this deck a natural predator of Dimir Rogues. Rakdos Midrange has a pretty strong lategame, while also being able to overpower opponents with an early 《Kroxa, Titan of Death’s Hunger》.
Gruul Adventures
9 《Forest》
4 《Mountain》
4 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Cragcrown Pathway》
1 《Temple of Abandon》
-Land (22)-
4 《Edgewall Innkeeper》
4 《Brushfire Elemental》
3 《Scavenging Ooze》
4 《Bonecrusher Giant》
4 《Kazandu Mammoth》
4 《Lovestruck Beast》
1 《Questing Beast》
-Creature (24)-
1 《Primal Might》
4 《Shatterskull Smashing》
2 《Fire Prophecy》
3 《Embercleave》
3 《The Great Henge》
1 《Vivien, Monsters’ Advocate》
-Spell (14)-
3 《Klothys, God of Destiny》
2 《Ox of Agonas》
2 《Scorching Dragonfire》
2 《Wilt》
2 《The Akroan War》
2 《Garruk, Unleashed》
1 《Questing Beast》
1 《Vivien, Monsters’ Advocate》
-Sideboard (15)-
Dimir Rogues
4 《Island》
3 《Swamp》
4 《Fabled Passage》
3 《Zagoth Triome》
4 《Clearwater Pathway》
4 《Temple of Deceit》
-Land (22)-
4 《Merfolk Windrobber》
4 《Ruin Crab》
4 《Thieves’ Guild Enforcer》
4 《Soaring Thought-Thief》
-Creature (16)-
2 《Bloodchief’s Thirst》
2 《Cling to Dust》
4 《Drown in the Loch》
4 《Eliminate》
3 《Agadeem’s Awakening》
2 《Lullmage’s Domination》
4 《Into the Story》
1 《Sea Gate Restoration》
-Spell (22)-
3 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Vantress Gargoyle》
2 《Duress》
2 《Negate》
2 《Call of the Death-Dweller》
2 《Lullmage’s Domination》
1 《Thassa’s Intervention》
1 《Lurrus of the Dream-Den》
-Sideboard (15)-
Yorion Doom Foretold
4 《Plains》
3 《Island》
3 《Swamp》
4 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Brightclimb Pathway》
4 《Clearwater Pathway》
4 《Temple of Enlightenment》
3 《Temple of Deceit》
1 《Temple of Silence》
-Land (30)-
4 《Skyclave Apparition》
3 《Yorion, Sky Nomad》
1 《Dream Trawler》
-Creature (8)-
1 《Cling to Dust》
2 《Eliminate》
2 《Heartless Act》
2 《Shatter the Sky》
2 《Extinction Event》
2 《Hagra Mauling》
4 《Emeria’s Call》
4 《Omen of the Sea》
3 《The Birth of Meletis》
4 《Elspeth’s Nightmare》
3 《Treacherous Blessing》
2 《Omen of the Sun》
4 《Doom Foretold》
3 《Elspeth Conquers Death》
2 《Glass Casket》
2 《Mazemind Tome》
-Spell (42)-
3 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Duress》
2 《Negate》
2 《Glimpse of Freedom》
2 《Shark Typhoon》
1 《Baneslayer Angel》
1 《Elspeth Conquers Death》
1 《Mazemind Tome》
1 《Yorion, Sky Nomad》
-Sideboard (15)-
Monogreen Food
16 《Forest》
4 《Castle Garenbrig》
3 《Bonders’ Enclave》
-Land (23)-
4 《Gilded Goose》
4 《Tangled Florahedron》
1 《Scavenging Ooze》
4 《Kazandu Mammoth》
4 《Lovestruck Beast》
2 《Thrashing Brontodon》
4 《Wicked Wolf》
4 《Feasting Troll King》
1 《Kogla, the Titan Ape》
-Creature (28)-
3 《Scavenging Ooze》
2 《Chainweb Aracnir》
2 《Thrashing Brontodon》
2 《Primal Might》
2 《Ram Through》
2 《Vivien, Monsters’ Advocate》
1 《Kogla, the Titan Ape》
1 《Ugin, the Spirit Dragon》
-Sideboard (15)-Temur Ramp
6 《Forest》
3 《Island》
2 《Mountain》
2 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Ketria Triome》
4 《Cragcrown Pathway》
2 《Riverglide Pathway》
-Land (23)-
4 《Beanstalk Giant》
-Creature (4)-
4 《Fire Prophecy》
4 《Jwari Disruption》
2 《Into the Roil》
2 《Shatterskull Smashing》
1 《Glimpse of Freedom》
4 《Cultivate》
1 《Mystical Dispute》
3 《Migration Path》
4 《Genesis Ultimatum》
4 《Shark Typhoon》
4 《Ugin, the Spirit Dragon》
-Spell (33)-
3 《Klothys, God of Destiny》
3 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Bonecrusher Giant》
2 《Ox of Agonas》
2 《Scorching Dragonfire》
1 《Glimpse of Freedom》
1 《Negate》
1 《The Akroan War》
-Sideboard (15)-Rakdos Escape
6 《Swamp》
4 《Mountain》
4 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Temple of Malice》
1 《Castle Locthwain》
-Land (19)-
4 《Kroxa, Titan of Death’s Hunger》
4 《Mire Triton》
4 《Robber of the Rich》
4 《Bonecrusher Giant》
2 《Murderous Rider》
2 《Rankle, Master of Pranks》
2 《Ox of Agonas》
-Creature (22)-
4 《Bloodchief’s Thirst》
4 《Shatterskull Smashing》
3 《Pelakka Predation》
2 《Hagra Mauling》
4 《Tymaret Calls the Dead》
2 《Liliana, Waker of the Dead》
-Spell (19)-
2 《Skyclave Shade》
2 《Duress》
2 《Agonizing Remorse》
2 《Shredded Sails》
2 《Elspeth’s Nightmare》
1 《Ox of Agonas》
1 《Cling to Dust》
1 《Eliminate》
1 《Soul Shatter》
1 《Liliana, Waker of the Dead》
-Sideboard (15)-
Winrates of Standard
Decklists and winrates evolve. The evolution of winrates and decklists in past events is a great source of information. Let’s take a look at the metagame and winrates of both League weekends:
In this fast-paced day and age, the lists played only two weeks apart were vastly different. Yorion decks in the first weekend were mostly Azorius, which had a terrible winrate. Only two weeks later and the leading Yorion deck was Esper Doom Foretold. This makes sense, as the most successful deck in the first weekend was Gruul Adventures. Playing a deck with a good plan in this matchup was a sound plan, as a lot of players chose Gruul Adventures for the second week.
Gruul’s own winrate dropped by almost 18%. The primary reason I see for this shift is that people were fully expecting Gruul to be the most played deck. Not only does this mean everyone was prepared for the matchup, but also that Gruul players themselves focused on cards good in the mirror. We’ve seen people playing 《The Akroan War》 main deck, eschewing 《Questing Beast》. While this may be the right call in the Gruul mirror, it makes the matchup versus other decks worse.
The first week of League play saw a lot of Dimir Rogues, with a few Rakdos Midrange players trying to prey on them. The expected rise of Gruul Adventures chased away a lot of the Rogues players as the Gruul matchup isn’t easy from the Rogue point of view. The expected decline of Dimir Rogues in the second weekend also made sure nobody registered Rakdos Midrange for the second weekend of play. For Rakdos to thrive, Dimir Rogues needs to be a sizeable part of the metagame.
A new deck rose to dominion during the second weekend: Monogreen Food. Having a favorable matchup versus both Gruul Adventures and Yorion decks made this deck an excellent choice for the weekend. I fully expect Monogreen Food to be a sizeable portion of the metagame in the upcoming Zendikar Rising Championship.
Lastly, Shintaro Ishimura was the only player bringing Temur Ramp for the second weekend of play. His winrate was pretty good and I think this deck is a real contender. An early 《Ugin, the Spirit Dragon》 seems like a solid plan versus Monogreen Food, which is another reason for playing this deck.
Expected Metagame
I’ll start with the disclaimer that predicting a metagame is both very hard and something I haven’t necessarily been good at in the past. I have been playing loads of Standard lately and we have access to a lot of tournament data, so here we go:
| Deck | Expecetd Number |
|---|---|
| Gruul Adventures | 29% |
| Dimir Rogues | 14% |
| Yorion Doom Foretold | 14% |
| Temur Ramp | 7% |
| Rakdos Midrange | 5% |
| Monogreen Food | 13% |
| Other | 18% |
| Total | 100.0% |
I expect Gruul Adventures to still be the most played deck at the Zendikar Rising Championship. It’s a very strong deck and a safe choice. You can’t really be wrong when playing Gruul Adventures. Even in your worst matchups, you’ll still win games by just curving into an 《Embercleave》.
Likewise, Dimir Rogues is another safe choice. Compared to Gruul Adventures, it’s a bit underpowered however. You’ll have less wins by just playing inherently strong cards which are capable of winning the game on their own. For deckbuilding, I’d advise on focusing on the creature-based matchups with your maindeck. 《Lullmage’s Domination》 in particular is a gamebreaking card versus Gruul and Monogreen.
I may be overestimating how many people will show up with Yorion Doom Foretold, but it’s the strongest control deck out there. I’m no stranger to the feeling of wanting to play control decks. For Yorion players: make sure you know how to approach both the Dimir Rogues and the Monogreen Food matchup.
Temur Ramp is here to stay. I don’t envision it to ever be a major player, as counterspells like 《Negate》 are just too good against this deck. But I believe this deck to be very well positioned for the Zendikar Rising Championship. If you don’t plan on playing Temur Ramp, at least don’t dismiss testing the matchup. If you are planning on playing it, don’t forget 《Klothys, God of Destiny》 and 《Ox of Agonas》 in your sideboard. You’ll need a sound plan versus Dimir Rogues.
If there’s one deck I wouldn’t recommend, it would be Rakdos Midrange. Dimir Rogues won’t be large enough part of the metagame to prey on. Some players will still bring to Rakdos to the table and I’m looking forward to see how they attack the Gruul matchup.
And last but not least: Monogreen Food. If anything, I could be underestimating the Food deck’s metagame share. This deck can play oversized creatures fast and they’ll keep on coming. Both the Food engine as well as 《The Great Henge》 can generate unsurmountable advantages. Either prepare for or play this deck.
Final Notes
If you’ve read this article, I think it’s clear I think Temur Ramp could be a wise choice for the Zendikar Mythic Championship. If I had to submit a decklist today, Ramp would be my choice. People will focus on having a plan versus Food and Gruul, while having to dedicate sideboard space to also keeping Rogues and Yorion in check. Ugin is a messed up Magic card and I’d be very interested in getting it into play early and often in this metagame.
Hit me up on Twitter (@VierenPascal) if you have any questions or suggestions!
Pascal Vieren (Twitter)
