Introduction
Hello everyone,
It has been a long time since my last article. I have been quite busy recently with the organization of my wedding and my move from France to Japan. Yes, I’m going to live in Japan again and I am very excited about it.
With that being said I am today going to talk about Standard. The current Standard format is the healthier and most well design we have since a long time. There are so many good decks and it’s very hard to say there is one better than others. Every week the metagame changes, the most popular deck is never the same and you have to pick your deck according to it. It’s just awesome, at this point I feel like it is like the old Extended or Modern when reading metagame is more important than play the best deck and it’s great. Since it’s Standard, match-ups are closer than what it was with these formats but it’s still good to pick up the deck that has few positive percentages against the field.
In this article, I will try to talk about match-ups and how to pick a deck for an event according to the metagame you expect.
The Manabase
First thing to analyze is the manabase of the format. To be able to play 3 colors (or more) you have access to Shocklands and Scrylands. Most of the 3 color decks are playing 12 Shocklands and 4-8 Scrylands, even if it is not an issue in slow match-ups, I believe it is the main reason why Mono Red is still strong. These lands are great but free damages and arriving tapped just made your chain slow and this is what Mono Red tries to attack.
In general, in the history of MTG this is how a format works (happened in Modern, Legacy too). You have some mono color linear strategies, 2 color decks are built to beat them, then to go other the top, they had a 3rd color to have an edge in the mirror and then the mono color deck comes back to defeat those slow decks.
It’s exactly what happens here. Even if the three color decks play super strong cards against Mono Red like 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》, sweeper effects…after all the mana base make the match-up closer.
As you can see this is why some people try to change a 3 color deck (here Temur Adventure) into a 2 color deck.
3-3 in the arena thing with a bit of a homebrew. Love Uro, hate 3 colors & lots of shock lands. escape the wild is great, but bonecrusher giant doesn't seem like a big loss. red matchup feels good although t3 annax, t4 cleave is unbeatable g1. Boar has to carry mirror/fires. pic.twitter.com/PebbE4IqOE
— Kai Budde (@kaibudde) February 29, 2020
The problem behind this logic is that in the current Standard, there is only one mono color deck and it is Mono Red. There is no Mono White or Mono Black aggro. So, it is pretty hard to choose a 2 color option, decrease all your match-ups win-rate to increase the match-up against a deck which will never be more than 20 % of the metagame.
What Decks Constitute the Core of Standard right now?
I am not going to talk about Tier 1, Tier 2 or Tier 3 since I truly believe it is never the same every week. I think it is better to talk about the 8 top decks in a Tier 1 and then you can adapt to your metagame.
8 Top Tier Decks in the Current Standard
Here is what I believe are win-rate between these 8 decks.
Win-Rate between Those 8 Decks
Click to Enlarge
As you can see Temur Adventure is positive against most of all decks from World Championship XXVI, aka Azorius Control, Mono Red and Jeskai Fires. This is why it was the best deck just after Worlds and it won many tournaments.
- Aaron Gertler
- – Temur Adventures
- DreamHack Arena Open Tournament
- (Champion)
6 《Forest》
4 《Island》
2 《Mountain》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Stomping Ground》
3 《Steam Vents》
2 《Temple of Abandon》
1 《Temple of Epiphany》
1 《Temple of Mystery》
-Land (27)- 4 《Edgewall Innkeeper》
4 《Fae of Wishes》
4 《Bonecrusher Giant》
4 《Brazen Borrower》
4 《Lovestruck Beast》
4 《Beanstalk Giant》
-Creature (24)-
4 《Island》
2 《Mountain》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Stomping Ground》
3 《Steam Vents》
2 《Temple of Abandon》
1 《Temple of Epiphany》
1 《Temple of Mystery》
-Land (27)- 4 《Edgewall Innkeeper》
4 《Fae of Wishes》
4 《Bonecrusher Giant》
4 《Brazen Borrower》
4 《Lovestruck Beast》
4 《Beanstalk Giant》
-Creature (24)-
3 《Aether Gust》
1 《Mystic Repeal》
1 《Disdainful Stroke》
1 《Domri’s Ambush》
1 《Fling》
1 《Negate》
1 《Return to Nature》
1 《Once and Future》
1 《Storm’s Wrath》
1 《Escape to the Wilds》
1 《Shadowspear》
1 《Sorcerous Spyglass》
1 《Chandra, Awakened Inferno》
-Sideboard (15)-
1 《Mystic Repeal》
1 《Disdainful Stroke》
1 《Domri’s Ambush》
1 《Fling》
1 《Negate》
1 《Return to Nature》
1 《Once and Future》
1 《Storm’s Wrath》
1 《Escape to the Wilds》
1 《Shadowspear》
1 《Sorcerous Spyglass》
1 《Chandra, Awakened Inferno》
-Sideboard (15)-
Then, decks like Rakdos Sacrifice and Temur Reclamation became popular to be able to beat Temur Adventure. After that, to beat Rakdos and Adventures, Bant Ramp arrived.
- Quentin Garchery
- – Rakdos Sacrifice
- Grand Prix Lyon 2020
- (Top8)
6 《Swamp》
4 《Mountain》
4 《Blood Crypt》
4 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Temple of Malice》
2 《Castle Locthwain》
-Land (24)- 4 《Cauldron Familiar》
4 《Mire Triton》
4 《Priest of Forgotten Gods》
3 《Kroxa, Titan of Death’s Hunger》
4 《Mayhem Devil》
3 《Midnight Reaper》
3 《Woe Strider》
-Creature (25)-
4 《Mountain》
4 《Blood Crypt》
4 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Temple of Malice》
2 《Castle Locthwain》
-Land (24)- 4 《Cauldron Familiar》
4 《Mire Triton》
4 《Priest of Forgotten Gods》
3 《Kroxa, Titan of Death’s Hunger》
4 《Mayhem Devil》
3 《Midnight Reaper》
3 《Woe Strider》
-Creature (25)-
4 《Claim the Firstborn》
1 《Angrath’s Rampage》
2 《Tymaret Calls the Dead》
4 《Witch’s Oven》
-Spell (11)-
1 《Angrath’s Rampage》
2 《Tymaret Calls the Dead》
4 《Witch’s Oven》
-Spell (11)-
- Quentin Leroy
- – Temur Reclamation
- Grand Prix Lyon 2020
- (Finalist)
2 《Island》
1 《Forest》
1 《Mountain》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Steam Vents》
4 《Stomping Ground》
2 《Fabled Passage》
2 《Temple of Abandon》
2 《Temple of Epiphany》
2 《Temple of Mystery》
2 《Castle Vantress》
1 《Blast Zone》
-Land (27)- 3 《Brazen Borrower》
3 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》
-Creature (6)-
1 《Forest》
1 《Mountain》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Steam Vents》
4 《Stomping Ground》
2 《Fabled Passage》
2 《Temple of Abandon》
2 《Temple of Epiphany》
2 《Temple of Mystery》
2 《Castle Vantress》
1 《Blast Zone》
-Land (27)- 3 《Brazen Borrower》
3 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》
-Creature (6)-
4 《Opt》
4 《Growth Spiral》
2 《Negate》
2 《Thassa’s Intervention》
2 《Mystical Dispute》
3 《Storm’s Wrath》
2 《Chemister’s Insight》
4 《Expansion/Explosion》
4 《Wilderness Reclamation》
-Spell (27)-
4 《Growth Spiral》
2 《Negate》
2 《Thassa’s Intervention》
2 《Mystical Dispute》
3 《Storm’s Wrath》
2 《Chemister’s Insight》
4 《Expansion/Explosion》
4 《Wilderness Reclamation》
-Spell (27)-
3 《Robber of the Rich》
3 《Scorching Dragonfire》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Negate》
2 《Mystical Dispute》
1 《Niv-Mizzet, Parun》
1 《Chandra’s Pyrohelix》
1 《Storm’s Wrath》
-Sideboard (15)-
3 《Scorching Dragonfire》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Negate》
2 《Mystical Dispute》
1 《Niv-Mizzet, Parun》
1 《Chandra’s Pyrohelix》
1 《Storm’s Wrath》
-Sideboard (15)-
- Davide Tedeschi
- – Bant Ramp
- Grand Prix Lyon 2020
- (Top8)
3 《Forest》
2 《Island》
1 《Plains》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Hallowed Fountain》
4 《Temple Garden》
2 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Temple of Mystery》
3 《Temple of Plenty》
2 《Temple of Enlightenment》
-Land (29)- 3 《Hydroid Krasis》
4 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》
2 《Knight of Autumn》
2 《Dream Trawler》
-Creature (11)-
2 《Island》
1 《Plains》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Hallowed Fountain》
4 《Temple Garden》
2 《Fabled Passage》
4 《Temple of Mystery》
3 《Temple of Plenty》
2 《Temple of Enlightenment》
-Land (29)- 3 《Hydroid Krasis》
4 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》
2 《Knight of Autumn》
2 《Dream Trawler》
-Creature (11)-
4 《Growth Spiral》
1 《Aether Gust》
3 《Shatter the Sky》
3 《Elspeth Conquers Death》
4 《Teferi, Time Raveler》
1 《Tamiyo, Collector of Tales》
4 《Nissa, Who Shakes the World》
-Spell (20)-
1 《Aether Gust》
3 《Shatter the Sky》
3 《Elspeth Conquers Death》
4 《Teferi, Time Raveler》
1 《Tamiyo, Collector of Tales》
4 《Nissa, Who Shakes the World》
-Spell (20)-
3 《Devout Decree》
3 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Lovestruck Beast》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Dovin’s Veto》
1 《Agent of Treachery》
1 《Heliod’s Intervention》
1 《Narset, Parter of Veils》
-Sideboard (15)-
3 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Lovestruck Beast》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Dovin’s Veto》
1 《Agent of Treachery》
1 《Heliod’s Intervention》
1 《Narset, Parter of Veils》
-Sideboard (15)-
Top8 Decks from GP Lyon and Sunday PTQ
Here are the top8 decks from GP Lyon and Sunday PTQ last weekend:
| Archetype | Top8 in GP Lyon | Top8 in Sunday PTQ |
|---|---|---|
| Bant Ramp | 2 | 3 |
| Mono Red | 2 | 1 |
| Rakdos Sacrifice | 2 | 0 |
| Temur Reclamation | 1 | 2 |
| Sultai Control | 1 | 0 |
| Azorius Control | 0 | 1 |
| Jund Sacrifice | 0 | 1 |
If the metagame at this tournament was full of Temur Adventure, I do not surprise Rakdos and Reclamation did well. Since Bant had only one very bad match-up, because Sultai Control was not that popular at the moment, I am not surprised good players playing it to reach the top8 too.
- Alexandre Murgey
- – Sultai Control
- Grand Prix Lyon 2020
- (Top4)
3 《Forest》
3 《Island》
1 《Swamp》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Overgrown Tomb》
3 《Watery Grave》
4 《Fabled Passage》
3 《Temple of Malady》
2 《Temple of Mystery》
1 《Temple of Deceit》
-Land (28)- 4 《Hydroid Krasis》
4 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》
2 《Atris, Oracle of Half-Truths》
1 《Polukranos, Unchained》
-Creature (11)-
3 《Island》
1 《Swamp》
4 《Breeding Pool》
4 《Overgrown Tomb》
3 《Watery Grave》
4 《Fabled Passage》
3 《Temple of Malady》
2 《Temple of Mystery》
1 《Temple of Deceit》
-Land (28)- 4 《Hydroid Krasis》
4 《Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath》
2 《Atris, Oracle of Half-Truths》
1 《Polukranos, Unchained》
-Creature (11)-
4 《Thought Erasure》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Agonizing Remorse》
2 《Growth Spiral》
2 《Tyrant’s Scorn》
3 《Casualties of War》
2 《Tamiyo, Collector of Tales》
1 《Vraska, Golgari Queen》
3 《Nissa, Who Shakes the World》
-Spell (21)-
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Agonizing Remorse》
2 《Growth Spiral》
2 《Tyrant’s Scorn》
3 《Casualties of War》
2 《Tamiyo, Collector of Tales》
1 《Vraska, Golgari Queen》
3 《Nissa, Who Shakes the World》
-Spell (21)-
4 《Lovestruck Beast》
4 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Ritual of Soot》
1 《Disdainful Stroke》
1 《The Elderspell》
1 《Casualties of War》
-Sideboard (15)-
4 《Mystical Dispute》
2 《Aether Gust》
2 《Ritual of Soot》
1 《Disdainful Stroke》
1 《The Elderspell》
1 《Casualties of War》
-Sideboard (15)-
Sultai might be the deck to pick up if you don’t concern too much about the Mono Red match-up. At this point, not sure if it’s better to give up the match-up or have 10 cards in the sideboard.
Rejoice Sultai lovers! I defeated the undefeatable!!! pic.twitter.com/vJN9Tq5tfp
— Andrea Mengucci (@Mengu09) February 27, 2020
Wrap Up
If you really want a Tier metagame for next week, It’s very possible that it will be something like this:
| Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Temur Reclamation | Rakdos/Jund Sacrifice | Jeskai Fires |
| Mono Red | Temur Adventure | Azorius Control |
| Bant Ramp | Sultai Control |
Maybe it is time for Azorius Control to come back and shine again?
Thank you for reading,
